Cer-Ufba
Risk Studies Center´s Research
Projects and research lines of the CER-UFBA.
Reliability (Confiabilidade):
Development of novel statistical models for reliability analysis, encompassing frailty models, degradation processes, accelerated life testing, and repairable systems.
SPC and Applications (CEP e Aplicações):
Proposal (and provision) of new tools for Statistical Process Control (SPC), notably control charts and capability indices, based on probability distributions introduced in recent literature, as well as unpublished statistical models developed by our team. The aim is to contribute to methodological, computational, and applied aspects in the context of CEP.
Sports Forecasting (Previsão Esportiva)
Predictions for major football championships, obtained from statistical models and machine learning, which take into account various factors such as home-field advantage, attacking and defensive strengths of each team in the championship, among others. Website: www.previsaoesportiva.com.br
2024
i) Portela, A.C.T.; Brito, E.S.; Tomazella, V.L.D.; Diniz, C.A.R.; Ferreira, P.H.. Reliability of repairable systems with Non-Central Gamma frailty. Brazilian Journal of Biometrics, v. 42, p. 182-201, 2024.https://doi.org/10.28951/bjb.v42i2.697
ii) Boaventura, L.L.; Fiaccone, R.L.; Ferreira, P.H.. Prediction Control Charts: A New and Flexible Artificial Intelligence-Based Statistical Process Control Approach. Annals of Data Science, v. 11, p. 273-306, 2024.https://doi.org/10.1007/s40745-022-00441-5
iii) Fonseca, A.; Ferreira, P.H.; Nascimento, D.C.; Louzada, F.. Gráficos de Controle para Processos de Contagem e Unitários: Uma Abordagem de CEP Clássico e Bayesiano. Revista do Seminário Internacional de Estatística com R, v. 5, p. 1-5, 2024.
iv) Ramos, G.A.S.; Ferreira, P.H.. Ciência de Dados no futebol: Uma análise estatística das cotações de casas de apostas online. Matemática e Estatística em Foco, v. 11, p. 25-37, 2024.
v) Soares, V.C.; Jerez-Lillo, N.; Ferreira, P.H.; Ramos, P.L.. Improved process capability assessment through semiparametric piecewise modeling. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, v. 94, p. 3063-3092, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1080/00949655.2024.2366364
vi) Nascimento, D.C.; Gonzatto Junior, O.A.; Elal-Olivero, D.; Bonnail, E.; Ferreira, P.H.. Statistical process control (SPC) for double-bounded information: Choosing wisely the parametric family for unit data. Quality Engineering, v. 36, p. 575-593, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1080/08982112.2023.2254843
vii) Brito, E.S.; Tomazella, V.L.D.; Ferreira, P.H.; Louzada, F.; Gonzatto-Junior, O.A.. Reliability analysis of multiple repairable systems under imperfect repair and unobserved heterogeneity. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, v. 40, p. 3888-3912, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.3607
2023
i) Ferreira, P.H.; Barrios-Blanco, L.; Santana, H.R.; Castillo-Rojas, W.A.; Suzuki, A.K.; Louzada, F.. Partidos de Fútbol, ¿Suerte o Causalidad? Introducción a los Modelos Estadísticos de Conteo y RNA para la Predicción de Juegos utilizando la Liga de Fútbol de Chile. Revista de la Faculdad de Ingeniería, v. 37, p. 9-21, 2023.
ii) Boaventura, L.L.; Ferreira, P.H.; Fiaccone, R.L.; Ramos, P.L.; Louzada, F. New statistical process control charts for overdispersed count data based on the Bell distribution. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências. v. 95, n. 2, e20200246, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202320200246 https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202320200246
iii) Boaventura, L.L.; Ferreira, P.H.; Fiaccone, R.L.; Ramos, P.L.; Louzada, F.. New statistical process control charts for overdispersed count data based on the Bell distribution. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, v. 95, n. 2, p. 1-22, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202320200246
2022
i) Sena, J.G.S.; Ferreira, P.H.; Fiaccone, R.L.. Statistical Process Control as a Tool to Control and Prevent Malaria Epidemics in the Legal Amazon Region. Brazilian Journal of Biometrics, v. 40, n. 1, p. 21-49, 2022. https://doi.org/10.28951/bjb.v40i1.538
ii) Jesus, B.D.; Ferreira, P.H.; Boaventura, L.L.; Fiaccone, R.L.; Bertoli, W.; Ramos, P.; Louzada, F.. Statistical process control of overdispersed count data based on one-parameter Poisson mixture models. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, v. 38, n. 5, p. 2324-2344, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.3077
iii) Boaventura, L.L.; Ferreira, P.H.; Fiaccone, R.L.. On Flexible Statistical Process Control with Artificial Intelligence: Classification Control Charts. Expert Systems with Applications, v. 194, p. 116492, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.116492
iv) Ferreira, P.H.; Fonseca, A.; Nascimento, D.; Bonnail, E.; Louzada, F. Unraveling water monitoring association towards weather attributes for response proportions data: A unit-Lindley learning. PLoS ONE, v. 17, n. 10, p. e0275841, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0275841
2021
i) Fonseca, A.; Ferreira, P.H.; Nascimento, D.; Fiaccone, R.L.; Ulloa-Correa, C.; Garcia-Pina, A.; Louzada, F. Water particles monitoring in the Atacama Desert: SPC approach based on proportional data. Axioms, v. 10, 154, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms10030154
ii) Blanco, L.B.; Ferreira, P.H.; Louzada, F.; Nascimento, D.C. Is Football/Soccer Purely Stochastic, Made Out of Luck, or Maybe Predictable? How Does Bayesian Reasoning Assess Sports? Axioms, v. 10, 276, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms10040276
2020
i) Santana, H.R.; Ferreira, P.H.; Ara, A.; Louzada, F.; Suzuki, A.K.. Modelagem Estatística e de Aprendizado de Máquina: Previsão do Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2017. Matemática e Estatística em Foco, v. 7, n. 1, p. 42-66, 2020.
ii) Louzada, F.; Ferreira, P.H.; Ara, A.; Godoy, C.. CEP Online: a web-oriented expert system for statistical process control. Pesquisa Operacional (Online), v. 39, n. 1, p. 177-204, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-7438.2019.039.01.0177